Chelsea, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

585
FXUS64 KBMX 080237
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
937 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 936 PM CDT MON APR 7 2025

- Freeze conditions are expected for the northern half of Central
  Alabama Wednesday morning, while all other locations will at
  least observe patchy or areas of frost as temperatures drop into
  the lower 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 936 PM CDT MON APR 7 2025

Skies are clearing and temperatures are dropping the evening, with
light northwest winds. With a few scattered sites up to >90 RH and a
few drops in visibility, have added mention of fog in the forecast
for tonight. Coverage should be scattered, especially along
waterways and areas blocked from wind. Otherwise, the previous
forecast remains on track.

12

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT MON APR 7 2025

Well, we just can`t seem to get the rain to end across Central
Alabama today. Even though surface winds have shifted to the
northwest, southwesterly flow aloft continues to produce enough
isentropic lift for stratiform rain development almost areawide
this afternoon. After sunset this evening, westerly flow will
finally begin to work in aloft as the upper trough axis swings
eastward over the Southeast effectively ending the rain from west
to east. Clouds are also forecast to slowly clear from west to
east during the evening hours as well. In the meantime, we`ll be
socked in with low clouds and light to moderate rain for much of
the forecast area which will keep temperatures on the cool side in
the 50s. Some locations will remain steady in the lower 50s
through the rest of the afternoon.

As clouds clear overnight tonight, drier and cooler air will
continue to advect in from the northwest. We`ll have to keep an
eye on trends overnight, but confidence is fairly high that we`ll
be able to keep the boundary layer mixed with the northwesterly
surface flow and be able to drop dewpoints low enough to prevent
fog formation. If it appears that the northwest flow doesn`t
materialize as expected, then we may need to add at least patchy
fog to the forecast with the waterlogged conditions that we have
at the surface. Lows will be chilly in the upper 30s to lower 40s
areawide. Sunshine will return on Tuesday, but we`ll remain on the
cooler side with breezy northwest winds. We`ll see another
reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air as a dry surface front
quickly moves southward during the afternoon. Behind the front,
highs will be around 60 to the north, while Eufaula may reach the
70 degree mark.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT MON APR 7 2025

Unfortunately we just couldn`t seem to get through the first
couple of weeks of April without a threat for a late freeze this
year. We`ll see just that Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as
the reinforcing cold front will send more cold and dry air
southward. In addition, the surface ridge will just about settle
in over the Tennessee River Valley region early Wednesday morning.
That will set the stage for ideal radiational cooling conditions
and a freeze now appears likely across the northern third of
Central Alabama. We`ve gone ahead and issued a Freeze Watch for
these locations with a potential for lows to range between 30 and
32 degrees. That being said, not every location in each of the
Freeze Watch counties will hit the freezing mark. Normally cooler
valley locations will be the coldest, including locations such as
Haleyville, Jasper, Gadsden, Anniston, Sylacauga, and Pinson. In
other words, river and valley locations will likely see
temperatures drop at or below freezing. For the rest of the
forecast area, we can at least expect patchy to areas of frost, so
we`ll need a Frost Advisory for just about all of Central Alabama
by Wednesday morning.

Moderating temperatures are forecast Wednesday before another
system approaches during the day on Thursday as the upper level
flow remains northwesterly. An upper level trough will dive
southward across the Midwest in what will be an almost clipper-
like system that will bring our next chance of showers and perhaps
a few storms to the northern half of the CWA. As the upper
shortwave evolves into more of a closed system at 500mb, we`ll
have plenty of cold air and instability aloft (-18C at 500mb). If
storms are able to develop, I wouldn`t rule out some small hail,
but at this time no severe storms are expected. Best rain chances
are expected Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening.
Following that system, we`ll have another shot of cooler and drier
air by Friday and Saturday.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT MON APR 7 2025

Clouds are clearing quickly from northwest to southeast across the
forecast area. Expect drizzle to end and MVFR conditions to
improve to VFR with clear skies overnight. Northwesterly winds
will be lighter overnight but will pick up again tomorrow
afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail tomorrow with clear to
mostly clear skies.

12

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain chances will diminish overnight as cool and dry air finally
works back into the region. By Tuesday, MinRH values will drop
back into the low-30% range, where they will remain through
Thursday. 20ft winds will remain on the breezy side, around 10mph
with some gusts up to 20mph during the afternoon on Tuesday.
Elsewhere, look for Mixing Heights to rebound as well, back to
nearly 5.0kft by Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     39  60  30  69 /  10   0   0   0
Anniston    40  62  32  70 /  20   0   0   0
Birmingham  41  61  35  69 /  10   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  42  65  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      42  63  36  69 /  10   0   0   0
Auburn      44  65  38  69 /  20   0   0   0
Montgomery  43  67  37  69 /  20   0   0   0
Troy        43  67  37  70 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
for the following counties: Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Clay-
Cleburne-Etowah-Fayette-Jefferson-Lamar-Marion-Randolph-Shelby-
St. Clair-Talladega-Walker-Winston.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...12